Already many days I did not write of this topic, but the events that happened last week and the consultations of good friends that appear in this window have insinuated me, that if I have something to say after the international media have made new leaks.
So I take advantage of the delicious "Café de Colinas" of my last trip to distract somewhat the theme of AutoCAD 2012 that has me anxious, as long as I do not see what Bentley intends with his strange silence and that will surely end with a big smoke for 2011 of which I barely have any assumptions in tactile format.
The cold war, very little has changed in 40 years.
I arrived in Honduras because of a civil war, which took 12 years and cost more than 75,000 killed, among them a couple of dozens of my close relatives. I've been on the Isthmus for thirty years and what I've seen in the last two years has brought me back memories of what I experienced when I was just in my first school years. Those were times when the orange-colored eraser smelled of perfumed sweet, when a bag made in Singer machine was loaded by my mother, with my name written in indelible down - the same one that was used to mark the date that the chompipe eggs should open. of green gabardine crossed on the back and that heated the right scapula to the contact with the still hot new corn tortillas inflated to the comal.
The cold war in these contexts is quite similar, it has not innovated at all its development characteristics, with the variant that now instead of staining the walls with red and mounting a clandestine radio on the summits of a forest, it is dispersed by the photos tagged on social networks and has clearly identified radio and television channels. The right continues to maintain an attachment to their personal interests and the government relies on palliatives that do not pay for the modernization of the state, the decline of political patronage and attack on historical problems through inspiration of creative and visionary ideas.
It continues to be a dual phenomenon, in which there are only two extremes: one bad and one evil. The tactics of deceit and exaggeration are maintained, at a time when people (many) have access to media easily, and where it can be shown that the lies on the right are as obvious as those on the left; what happens is that the marketing of the media now manages to work at a high level the masses, led by strategists who understand the cascade phenomenon of buying consciousness from a weak point of each family, group or social class; no matter what trick you can use.
The logistical conditions of thirty years ago are somewhat different, but they are still relative: at that time, any amount of armament could come from western Europe. Those lights that descended the mountain from the Honduran border at night, I knew one night that they were beasts loaded with weapons badly covered with grass grass. Once the Russian machine guns were brought to light, the hunting rifles, cutting daggers and farming implements that had been confiscated from the peasants were no longer necessary, and consequently they were fused to make bombs for the hunting industry. Three years were enough for the entire north of El Salvador to build and sustain the mountain areas for twelve years under conditions of "recovered territories."
Today, there are not that many weapons under a stamp of the Left, Cuba can no longer bet on such a cause and Venezuela has limitations to do so openly without evidencing the poverty of thought of its leader. But drug trafficking and organized crime have weapons capabilities superior to what the army could do every day more decimated by its poor role and discredit their actions. Reason why I mentioned long ago that the role of organized crime and drug trafficking are preponderant for a civil war, they would do so if there was an incentive to their only temporary interests: power and money. It is also very different the role that the United States can have, which at that moment could put together a counter revolution in the light of day, which it can not do today in the face of international political and economic fragility, this diminishes the army's response capabilities a TU war, in a country where the dominant topography resembles the areas where the guerrillas won the battle in El Salvador, after being forced into hiding and retreat after the so-called 1981 Final Offensive.
It is also quite similar to the strategy of buying consciousness, it hardly differs in external influence and role played by the thinking class. In my years, the Cuban advisers arrived late; unnecessary hatred had been sown in the best allies (the population); people with their assets built because of their efforts were affected, people saw it wrong that my father's cows were killed with guns and slaughtered in public in exchange for life, that their crops were confiscated just for being the order of the revolution. These actions in small villages, where everyone knows each other are nefariously negative, more than affecting a built heritage in many years, made humble people lose the privilege they had enjoyed for years, bring milk, whey, corn and medicines for free. These and other more terrible things caused the coal people, to the extent that those towns are listed on the statistical map only for historical purposes, people never returned.
By the time the Cuban advisers arrived, and they were told that they were doing wrong to provoke the flight and rejection of the neutral population, it was too late.
It is a common tactic in towns not accustomed to organize, sow hatred works, but it is not sustainable. The problem must be attacked, not the people. Inequality, corruption, the lack of participatory structures, are problems that are felt, but to achieve them, strategies must be developed that are not based on hatred, because not everyone who has a vehicle, a house, a farm or a company is corrupt or oligarchs
The cold war is much like a man without creativity, both in his left hand and on the right.
Civil war is almost inevitable.
Almost 10 years cost the Salvadoran left, to unify efforts and constitute a single front that represented the collective interests. Farabundo Martí was built from wounds, betrayals, childish errors and international support. In the case of Honduras, barely two years have been enough for the coup to launch a strategy towards the unification of leftist current forces, international influence now has more weight ideologically and logistical aspects many things are almost unnecessary .
Its strategy can work, based on the real needs of a population that is generally dissatisfied with the customs of the political class and its association with economic power, up to levels of rejection that no matter how good an initiative may be, we can not believe that he is not doing behind a bad play. When these levels of loss of prestige and pessimism are reached, the road to a conflict is smoothed out. Although to the Resistance it still lacks route, in the purification of its leadership, to commit errors and to undergo betrayals to solidify its guidelines up to now somewhat more folkloric than strategic.
But finally, it will be able to sustain itself. As long as it does not submit to the people's vote prematurely and structure ideas born in the local context, they do not seem nostalgic for other times (which are no longer) and other countries (that no longer exist). That is based on the construction of new leadership, with social integration and professional contribution (which exists) to problems that in practice are possible to solve in the medium term. Forgetting non-functional ideas, such as taking advantage of the conjuncture of blind hatred, childish lies and exaggerations that are not required to convince your best ally (the population)
Doing so, it can take 6 years of suffering on the plain. But by then, it may have achieved strategic points of governmental, military and social gear; without the need to go to the presidential level. So, promoting a new constituent or leading a presidential candidate can win the battle.
Meanwhile, to achieve that scenario, avoid it or counterattack it ... Civil war is an option.
No. I do not like to remember, that day in a Honduran newspaper I could see the bodies stacked with more than 30 people, in a corridor that in my memories I remembered having drawn with chalk and making innocent bubbles of saliva with the same mouth in the thin of cement. Much less having come twelve years later, and see trees a foot in diameter in the courtyard where I learned to dance top, tap with cashew seeds and jump to the pole, while at the other end my cousins were singing in a wheel a game that terrified ... Dona Ana is not here, she is in her garden...
But when social debt and malpractice in government management heat up the pressure cooker, civil war can be a necessary evil. Conflicts are productive at all levels of family life, political, economic, to level imbalances and solidify agreements. The wars are not, but it seems that Honduras, time has come. However many efforts are made, short-term makeup will not change the outcome that (for now) we can not avoid who are on the neutral side, not because we lack a clear criterion, but because we prefer to enjoy those things that satisfy our lives every morning and for those who work all day and part of the night. Because of unnecessary conflicts we have lost good moments, for that reason we are dedicated to the effort based on our discipline, happy with what we achieve, without dreaming in fantastical scenarios, if one day we have to take a weapon, we will do it, if the pen, much better, both are occupied.
Also a good part of the neutrals think that a new leadership is occupied, that takes up great ideas that are there - in the left or the right - to be implemented with open mentality, the majority based on good practices that can be adopted in a participatory way without the necessity of a war, adapted to the context; the funny thing is that maybe to get to the latter if you deal with a good war.
We are optimistic, what we least expect is that we spend the next 7 years in this process, and in the end the leadership of both forces make agreements that leave things equal ... or worse.
P.S. Despite the melancholy of the post and the ironic simplicity of my rhetoric, I'm fine. Thank you for your good wishes.