Of course I would like to have a magic ball and be able to make it a santero, but it is not my pretense, just try Spend some time in this hammock which is a taste and this coffee cup just like my mother-in-law does Chirrio and palo, After such a sea soup.
Clarifying, for those who only read the headlines: I would be crazy if I decided to close the blog, now that I enjoy it more; just a bad one April Fool's joke. And once the matter is cleared up, let's smoke to what we could expect this year.
The bubble ends breaking
2010 should be a critical year for many trends that no longer find a way to reinvent themselves. I mean a lot of what emerged under the aura of Web 2.0 but were not innovative but rather an imitation of what others started.
The worst of the economic crisis is over, but there are up to two years to consider that the world economy is growing again. And meanwhile, creative companies (and with money) have already planned their redesign, waiting for the spark; not the small ones, who have endured the gale saying that they are fine but aware that if this does not change, their non-founding shareholders will go to hell (if they have not already done so).
So, without having many magical abilities, it is clear that 2010 is the second of at least three years of decline, that stage that in the product cycle awaits a new wave not to survive, but to reinvent itself; and if it is the only product in the portfolio, death is inevitable. For this reason, the altruism of many initiatives could go through a serious crisis, one only has to look at the torn clothes of projects like Wikipedia to predict what could happen to others that have not yet found a more sustainable survival strategy.
So: Big projects will survive, and small ones that are creative could merge into medium projects. The little non-innovators will simply make the smile of resignation and say "tables again", this is where we come. This is not bad, it is a rule of life, which has always happened, only that in this era of accelerated boom it is likely that in less than a year we will see a large project honestly accept its strategy of retirement and conversion to a foundation, stopping the research area and only giving continuity to what exists. Purely commercial initiatives simply go out of business and sell their customer base and unhelpful API to a competitor.
No longer the same.
The lawsuit this time will no longer be for market positioning, because that is not going to change the kicks if you keep doing more of the same. It means that some poorly demanded social media, online advertising companies, hosting providers and cloud services will disappear just like that.
Year of wear
Blogs and forums should continue to be exploited, but the trend towards fatigue is inevitable. Search engines (which are barely 3) will be more selective not to index from subdomains, blog farms or abandoned sites; With this, the life of these communities should be the people who use them, who comment, who link without harmful viral practices (that is, the real communities).
Year of innovation
Although it will not be the boom, 2010 may mark the beginning of the third generation, that world that they naively call the Semantic Web, which may never happen but we have an approximation, even if it is forced. The two signs that open the door to this landmark are visible:
- The first is the growing dependence on global connectivity, the new toys that are linked to broadband (increasingly broad) by lower prices.
- The second is the dissatisfaction with continuing to drink stale wine having such new wineskins.
In the fusion of these two tendencies, surely a new stage is forged in which those of us who depend on it will only have to readjust. If there is business, then there will be a trend ... and in a network with so many millions, surely there is business, it is only a matter of time to make it sustainable.
But we will not see that in 2010, we will hardly know where the big ships are heading. Google, Microsoft, HP, Oracle, Apple (and so that they do not suffer, Yahoo well). The others, only prepare not to be run over in their route and have enough time to position themselves without losing their users.
- The blogs mounted on Wordpress will only have to adapt the new version, those mounted on Blogger, that Google protects them. And we, happy, to smoke and write without headaches; yes, let's forget adaptations like Wordpress MU (oops!).
- Social networks, which adapt to work on the Facebook API or its new competitor; And even Hi5.
- The forums, to reinvent themselves, because something newer has not come out on that route for a long time. One day people may get tired of the planks of the help me please Without new sustainable community strategies.
- The wikis, only to follow, because its design has been very robust from the beginning.
- Twitter and family, to put their feet on the ground.
- Technorati, wig sites, blog farms and other herbs ... just readjusted to the new rss format ... and maybe in two years, Goodbye Atom.
Many of these changes will only begin in 2010, and those who will notice it will be the generations under the age of 25, they who waste (in our opinion) their time uploading photos, sharing their status, chatting, downloading pirated things and watching videos on YouTube. They will be the guinea pig, they who use the latest technologies, buy nothing but define global trends.
Meanwhile, in 2010 we will only continue to use the Internet for the same. To read news, buy toys, get inspired by Google Earth and things like that, we can expect nothing new, although we may find it more exciting. For the most part, that one friend finally stops using his annoying Hotmail email, that another realizes that there is no point in continuing to tweet and that the Chat lost its flavor.
And I, I will be able to post 360 new entries, very exciting (at least for me); to the 180 I will feel ashamed of this post, more than ever I will rearrange what I said to justify the depressive adrenaline that my mother-in-law's stick coffee produces.
Medium bitter, medium Squeaky, medium Gossipy... But good !.