Of course I would like to have a magic ball and be able to make it a santero, but it is not my pretense, just try Spend some time in this hammock which is a taste and this coffee cup just like my mother-in-law does Chirrio and palo, After such a sea soup.
Clarifying, for those who only read the headlines: I would be crazy if I decided to close the blog, now that I enjoy it the most; just a bad April Fool's joke. And once the matter is clarified, let's smoke to what we could expect in this year.
The bubble ends breaking
2010 should be a critical year for many trends that no longer find a way to reinvent themselves. I mean a lot of what emerged under the aura of Web 2.0 but that were not innovative but an imitation of what others started.
The worst of the economic crisis has passed, but there are still two years to consider that the world economy is once again in full swing. And meanwhile, the creative companies (and with pisto) have already planned their redesign, waiting for the spark; not the small ones, who have endured the gale saying they are fine but aware that if this does not change they will go to hell their non-founding shareholders (if not already they did).
So, without having many magical abilities, it is clear that 2010 is the second of at least three years of decline, that stage in the product cycle awaits a new wave not to survive, but to reinvent itself; and if it is the only product of the portfolio, death is inevitable. Therefore, the altruism of many initiatives could go through a serious crisis, just look at the ragged garments of projects like Wikipedia to predict what could happen to others who have not yet found a more sustainable survival strategy.
Then: The big projects will survive, and the small ones that are creative could be merged into medium projects. The small non-innovators will simply make the smile of resignation and say "tables again", until here we arrive. This is not bad, it is a rule of life, which has always happened, only in this age of accelerated boom it is likely that in less than a year we will see a big project to accept with sincerity its strategy of retirement and conversion to a foundation, stopping the research area and only give continuity to what exists. The purely commercial initiatives simply close and sell their customer base and their unhelpful API to a competitor.
No longer the same.
The lawsuit this time will no longer be for market positioning, because that is not going to change the kicks if you keep doing more of the same. It means that some social networks, online advertising companies, hosting providers and services from the cloud with poor demand will disappear that way.
Year of wear
Blogs and forums should continue to be exploited, but the trend towards fatigue is inevitable. The search engines (which are just 3) will be more selective to not index from subdomains, blog farms or abandoned sites; with this, the life of these communities should be the people who use them, who comment, who link without harmful viral practices (that is, the real communities).
Year of innovation
Although it will not be the boom, 2010 may mark the beginning of the third generation, that world that naively called semantic Web, which may never happen but we have an approximation even if forced. The two signs that open the door to this landmark are visible:
- The first is the growing dependence on global connectivity, the new toys that are linked to broadband (increasingly broad) by lower prices.
- The second is the dissatisfaction with continuing to drink stale wine having such new wineskins.
In the fusion of these two tendencies, surely a new stage is forged, in which those who depend on it will only have to readjust. If there is business, then there will be a tendency ... and in a network with so many millions, surely there is business, it is only a matter of time that makes it sustainable.
But that we will not see in 2010, we will barely know where the big ships are going. Google, Microsoft, HP, Oracle, Apple (and so they do not resent, Yahoo then). The others, only prepare not to be overwhelmed in their route and have enough time to position themselves without losing their users.
- The blogs mounted on WordPress should only adapt the new version, those mounted on Blogger, that Google protects them. And we, happy, to smoke and write without headaches; yes, forget adaptations like WordPress MU (ups!).
- Social networks, which adapt to work on the Facebook API or its new competitor; And even Hi5.
- The forums, which are reinvented, because a lot more novelty has not been on that route for a long time. One day people can get tired of the planks of the help me please Without new sustainable community strategies.
- The wikis, only to follow, because its design has been very robust from the beginning.
- Twitter and family, to put their feet on the ground.
- Technorati, wig sites, blog farms and other herbs ... just readjusted to the new rss format ... and maybe in two years, Goodbye Atom.
Many of these changes will only start in 2010, and those who will notice it will be the generations below the 25 years, who waste (in our opinion) their time uploading photos, sharing their status, chatting, downloading pirated things and watching videos on YouTube. They will be the guinea pig, they who use the most innovative technologies, they buy nothing but define global trends.
Meanwhile, at 2010 we will only continue using the Internet for the same. To read news, buy toys, inspire us in Google Earth and things like that, nothing new we can hope for although we may find more excitement. So much that a friend finally stop using his annoying Hotmail email, that another realizes there is no point in continuing to tweet and that the Chat lost its flavor.
And I, I will be able to post 360 new entries, very exciting (at least for me); to the 180 I will feel ashamed of this post, more than ever I will rearrange what I said to justify the depressive adrenaline that my mother-in-law's stick coffee produces.
Medium bitter, medium Squeaky, medium Gossipy... But good !.